Assessing and improving judgemental probability forecasts

This paper discusses three characteristics of subjective probabilities, their consistency, coherence and calibration and shows how they are inter-related. We review research that has investigated these characteristics and evaluate methods that have been developed for the improvement of judgemental probabilistic forecasting.

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Year of publication:	1987
Authors:	Ayton, Peter ; Wright, George
Published in:	Omega. - Elsevier, ISSN 0305-0483. - Vol. 15.1987, 3, p. 191-196
Publisher:	Elsevier

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Type of publication:	Article
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005333954