Assessing DSGE Models with Indeterminacy, Capital Accumulation and Different Taylor Rules

This paper studies New Keynesian DSGE models with capital accumulation, different Taylor rules, and the potential for indeterminacy. It is shown that investment activity creates additional channels for monetary policy influence, which allow for the reconsideration of some of the key findings of previous papers. First, while most canonical Keynesian models fail to replicate the high levels of autocorrelation among primary economic variables, the simulated results of this paper show that models with capital accumulation can, in fact, generate substantial persistencies. Secondly, using a Bayesian approach, this paper estimates different modifications of the models with capital accumulation on U.S. data from 1960:I to 2008:I. The results of this paper differ from the findings of earlier papers. In contrast to Lubik and Schorfheide (2004) and Clarida, Gali and Gertler (2000), this paper finds that the response of monetary policy to inflation is substantially lower, the response of the monetary policy rule to output is higher, household’s risk aversion increased substantially over time, and the targeted inflation rate was substantially lower for the post-1982 period. Finally, a Bayesian comparison of the models declared that models with indeterminacy dominate determinate models for various periods of U.S. history