Assessing Forecast Performance in a VECM Model : An Empirical Investigation between Public Expenditures and Economic Growth in Greece

This paper is an exercise in applied macroeconomic forecasting. We examine the forecasting power of a vector error-correction model (VECM) that is anchored by a long-run equilibrium relationship between Greek national income and productive public expenditure as suggested by the economic theory. We compare the estimated forecasting values of the endogenous variables to the real-historical values using a stochastic simulation analysis. The simulation results provide new evidence supporting the ability of the model to forecast not only one-period ahead but also many periods into the future

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Year of publication:	[2022]
Authors:	Bragoudakis, Zacharias
Publisher:	[S.l.] : SSRN
Subject:	Griechenland \| Greece \| Wirtschaftswachstum \| Economic growth \| Öffentliche Ausgaben \| Public expenditure \| Prognoseverfahren \| Forecasting model \| Schätzung \| Estimation \| Kointegration \| Cointegration
Description of contents:	Abstract [papers.ssrn.com]