Attempting to Quantify the Accuracy of Complex Macroeconomic Forecasts

Based on the 2012 Version of the Romanian Macromodel, the first section of this paper discusses the evolution of the Romanian economy in 2014. The previous simulations were revised taking into account the changes in the internal and external socio-economic conjuncture or in the available statistics. Starting from improved inputoutput tables, the Leontief matrix was recalculated, maintaining the ten-branch sectoral structure. Some accommodated exogenous parameters and expert corrective coefficients were also incorporated, according to the modified context in which the Romanian economy was effectively developing during this period. The second section examines the forecast accuracy problem for the case of a complex economic macromodel. The methodological considerations are doubled by an illustrative application, comparing the previous projections for 2014 with the last preliminary data. The third section presents the main predictive estimates for 2015, commented in correlation with the official prognosis. Some concluding remarks are synthetized in the fourth section of the paper