Bayesian inference does not lead you astray…on average

The expected value of the log of a Bayesian’s posterior assessment of the true state of nature, computed under the probability law of the true state, is always at least as large as the log of the prior.

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Year of publication:	2014
Authors:	Francetich, Alejandro ; Kreps, David
Published in:	Economics Letters. - Elsevier, ISSN 0165-1765. - Vol. 125.2014, 3, p. 444-446
Publisher:	Elsevier
Subject:	Bayesian inference \| Submartingale \| Log Posterior

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Type of publication:	Article
Classification:	C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General ; C11 - Bayesian Analysis
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011116198