Bayesian Model Averaging in Modelling GDP Convergence with the Use of Panel Data

In this paper, β convergence analysis for the 27 EU member countries and the 1993-2010 period is conducted. The analysis uses an Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach applied to Blundell and Bond’s GMM system estimator with the existence of structural breaks. In order to account for the differences in the steady-states of the countries, 22 variables are tested as potential economic growth determinants. The structural breaks are expected to be in 1998 and 2004. The main finding is that the EU27 countries converged at the rate of about 5% per annum which is an enormous difference as compared with the widely cited 2% speed of convergence and the mechanism of conditional convergence was rather constant over time yet the influence of particular growth factors on GDP proved not to be stable anymore.