Bayesian networks as a tool to assess the multiple effects of agricultural policies in rural areas

Many economic analysis tools are used to evaluate the effects of policies on rural development. However, a number of unexplored options are still available from the literature about policy analysis and biophysical systems representations. A particularly important need concerns the representation of the complexity of rural systems either in a static or dynamic framework In this paper we use Bayesian networks, to the best knowledge of the authors, basically ignored by the literature on rural development. The objective of this paper is to discuss the potential use of Bayesian Networks tools to represent the impact of the Common Agricultural Policies in rural areas.