Beyond the business cycle - factors driving aggregate mortality rates

This article provides a comprehensive econometric analysis of factors driving aggregatemortality rates over time. It differs from previous studies in this field by simultaneouslyconsidering an extensive set of macroeconomic, socio-economic and ecological factors asexplanatory variables. Germany is chosen as an indicative example for other industrializedcountries due to its advanced demographic transition process. Our regression analysis, whichcovers the time interval 1956-2004, indicates that sex- and age-specific mortality rates varysubstantially in their response to external factors. Strongest associations are found withchanges in real GDP, flu epidemics and the two life style variables alcohol and cigaretteconsumption in both univariate and multivariate setups...