Boom-bust cycles and their explanatory factors in the Tunisian stock market

In this paper an attempt is made to examine whether the monetary and financial indicators and behaviour of investors increase the occurrence probability of stock market boom and bust in Tunisia. To this end, we employ the ordered logit model on quarterly data during the period from 1999 Q2 to 2010 Q3. Based on the real Tunindex index, our findings provide interesting insights into the channels between the macroeconomic environment and boom-bust cycles. Our analysis puts in evidence that the monetary and financial indicators and behaviour of investors have played a key role in explaining Tunisian stock market boom-bust cycles.