British Episodic Economic Growth 1850-1938

This paper argues that non-random measurement errors in the estimates of British Gross Domestic Product makes the compromise estimate a biased indicator of medium-term economic growth. Since the compromise estimate of GDP has been widely accepted and used to describe macroeconomic trends in the British economy this has resulted in descriptions of British economic growth that are best explained as statistical artifacts. This paper questions the existence of an “Edwardian Climacteric”, argues for a rethinking of the myth of the “Great Depression” and offers new insights on inter-war economic growth.