By-elections, changing fortunes, uncertainty and the mid-term blues
If voters care about the size of the government's majority, then by-election votes should exaggerate national swings. Moreover, if there is uncertainty about the outcome of the general election and if voters” preferences are skewed in such a way as to give more weight to the “downside” outcome (least favourite party wins) than the “upside” (favoured party wins with a larger than preferred majority), then there will be a systematic tendency for governments to lose by-elections, regardless of any changes in national support. These predictions go beyond those generated by conventional explanations. The theory is successfully tested against data from 383 post-War elections. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1998
Year of publication: |
1998
|
---|---|
Authors: | Price, Simon ; Sanders, David |
Published in: |
Public Choice. - Springer. - Vol. 95.1998, 1, p. 131-148
|
Publisher: |
Springer |
Saved in:
Online Resource
Saved in favorites
Similar items by person
-
By-elections, changing fortunes, uncertainty and the mid-term blues
Price, Simon, (1998)
-
Economic competence, rational expectations and government popularity in post-war Britain
Price, Simon, (1994)
-
Pooling Cross-sections: a Response to Macdonald and Heath
Price, Simon, (1997)
- More ...