Calculation and analysis of energy consumption of Chinese national rail transport

Purpose: The rail transport sector in China represents one of the largest consumers of energy today, and the primary purpose of this paper is to examine the causes of changes in energy consumption of Chinese national rail transport (ECCNRT). Design/methodology/approach: For this study, reasonable indicators as factors that affected conversion volume (CV) and unit energy consumption (UEC) based on statistical data from 1990 to 2010 were selected. CV and UEC models were established by regression analysis and tested using real data of 2011-2014. The CV model indicates it has an exponential relationship with GDP. Besides, there is a quantitative relationship between UEC and the quantity of locomotives. The ECCNRT calculation model was proposed and ECCNRT model data were compared with the real data. Impacts of different factors on ECCNRT were analyzed with economic principles. Findings: The analysis conducted shows that the calculation model can reflect variation of ECCNRT precisely, and ECCNRT has a quantitative relation with GDP and quantities of locomotives. GDP accounts for changes of ECCNRT 20.02 per cent, while those for quantity of diesel locomotives and electric locomotives are 26.87 and 53.11 per cent, respectively. The number of electric locomotives is the main factor that influences variation of ECCNRT. Originality/value: Through regression analysis, this study discovered the inner quantitative relationship between the conversion volume (important index of Chinese national rail transport production) and GDP. In addition, this study establishes the ECCNRT model according to the Chinese national rail transport data, which can be used to calculate the amount of ECCNRT and conduct quantitative analysis for different impacts of various factors on ECCNRT’s changes.