Capital Asset Pricing Model in Unconditional and Conditional Framework : Empirical Evidence from Emerging Economy of Pakistan

The present study empirically investigates the risk and return relationship by loading the macroeconomic information in standard CAPM in addition to market information. One hundred financial and non financial companies listed on Karachi Stock Exchange are investigated over a period of January 2005 to August 2011. Monthly data is used for the company asset prices, market portfolio and macroeconomic variables in this study. The macroeconomic variables are used as additional risk forces in the model. The study makes use of CAPM with unconditional and conditional specification for the prediction of future asset prices. The time varying conditional information and lagged macroeconomic variables are added in the model. The GARCH (1, 1) – M technique is applied to capture the conditional volatility clustering of asset returns. The findings of the current study reveals that conditional multifactor CAPM have better results than unconditional multifactor CAPM model. The residuals and conditional variances have significantly positive impact and are helpful in explaining time varying behaviour of asset returns. The macroeconomic variables such as oil prices, foreign exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves, inflation rate, interest rate, and money supply play significant role while industrial production index, unemployment rate, and market returns have inconclusive role in this study. The study concludes that macroeconomic risk factors play a prominent role in explaining stock returns