CAUSALITIES AMONG GROWTH RELATED POLICY VARIABLES IN TURKEY, 1950-2004

This study aims to show the direction of causalities between imported production goods (investment and intermediate) and foreign exchange rate, export, and gross national product, between export and gross national product (GNP) during import substitution and export oriented industrialization periods in Turkey, and the direction of causalities between the domestic or foreign terms of trade (FTOT), realized foreign direct investment and GNP, export, and imported production goods during the 1982-2004 period. It discusses associations and controversies between theoretical statements and real world with the aims of economic policies. The imported production good is one of the causal sources of GNP for the both periods. Export causes production good import change during the import substitution period, but the imported production goods supply causes export to increase during export oriented industrialization period. Foreign exchange rate causes imported production goods to change during import substitution period, but the direction of causality exists adversely during export oriented industrialization period. The foreign exchange rate directs export, export directs GNP, and GNP directs the foreign exchange rates after 1980. The foreign TOT (terms of trade) and realized foreign direct investment inflow into Turkey are not causal sources for the changes in gross national product and production goods import.