Changes in intra-city employment patterns: a spatial analysis

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate area-level labour market dynamics from a spatial perspective. This analysis is aimed at better understanding what socio-economic actors are associated with shifts in unemployment rates across a major metropolitan city. Design/methodology/approach – Based on two waves of New Zealand census data, this paper combines a seemingly unrelated regression approach (allowing for relaxation of the assumption that residuals from models of different employment states are unrelated) with a spatial lag model. Findings – The key socio-economic drivers associated with intra-city employment dynamics were vehicle access, dependency rates and educational attainment. Importantly, the identification of spatial autocorrelation with respect to employment status patterns within this major New Zealand city motivates a case for heterogeneous employment policies across the city. Originality/value – This research improves the understanding of changes in labour market status rates within a city region. This is done by inclusion of two important considerations: a spatial perspective to labour market dynamics at an intra-city level; and formally modelling the interdependence across the four potential labour market outcomes (being full-time, part-time, unemployed or out of the labour force). Overall, there was clear empirical support for the need to include spatial considerations when using targeted policy to help lift areas out of unemployment.