Changing Engines of Growth in China: From Exports, FDI and Marketization to Innovation and Exports

This paper investigates the changing sources of growth in post-reform China. Using cross-province regressions, this paper finds that, in earlier periods, exports, foreign direct investment and marketization were significantly related to per capita income growth, whereas since the late 1990s, foreign direct investment and marketization have lost their significance and have been replaced by new sources of growth, such as innovation and knowledge, with only exports continuing to be important. This finding is robust after controlling for other variables representing other economic policies and provincial characteristics. We also tackle the possible endogeneity of innovation variables using the instrumental variables estimation method. Copyright (c) 2008 The Authors.