Chapter 9 New findings on secular trends in nutrition and mortality: Some implications for population theory

This chapter describes the evolution of thought on, and knowledge of, the secular decline in mortality; provides new evidence and new analytical techniques that have made it possible to switch attention from famines to chronic malnutrition as the principal link between the food supply and mortality. The chapter also proposes a new theory of the way that the food supply and population were brought into equilibrium between 1700 and the twentieth century; and suggests some implications of the theory for current population issues. The findings discussed in the chapter indicate that the elimination of chronic malnutrition has played an important role in the secular improvement of health and life expectancy. They also suggest that the elimination of stunting and wasting at early ages is of major importance in the reduction of morbidity and mortality rates at middle and late ages. The relevance of these findings for current policy issues may be more obvious for Third World countries than for currently industrialized countries.