Cite Unseen : Theory and Evidence on the Effect of Open Access on Cites to Academic Articles Across the Quality Spectrum

Our previous paper (McCabe and Snyder 2014) contained the provocative result that,despite a positive average effect, open access reduces cites to some articles, in particular thosepublished in lower-tier journals. We propose a model in which open access leads more readers toacquire the full text, yielding more cites from some, but fewer cites from those who would havecited the article based on superficial knowledge but who refrain once they learn that the article is abad match. We test the theory with data for over 200,000 science articles binned by cites receivedduring a pre-study period. Consistent with the theory, the marginal effect of open access is negativefor the least-cited articles, positive for the most cited, and generally monotonic for quality levels inbetween. Also consistent with the theory is a magnification of these effects for articles placed onPubMed Central, one of the broadest open-access platforms, and the differential pattern of resultsfor cites from insiders versus outsiders to the article's field