Clean-development investments: an incentive-compatible CGE modeling framework

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) established under the Kyoto Protocol allows industrialized Annex I countries to offset part of their domestic emissions by investing in emissions-reduction projects in developing non-Annex I countries. We present a novel CDM modeling framework which can be used in computable-general-equilibrium (CGE) models to quantify the sector-specific and macroeconomic impacts of CDM investments. Compared to conventional approaches that mimic CDM as sectoral emission trading, our framework adopts a micro consistent representation of the CDM incentive structure and its investment characteristics. In our empirical application based on GTAP data we show that incentive compatibility implies that CDM-implementing sectors do not suffer and overall welfare gains tend to be lower than suggested by conventional modeling approaches.