Comparing DSGE-VAR forecasting models: How big are the differences?
I generate priors for a vector autoregression (VAR) from a standard real business cycle (RBC) model, an RBC model with capital-adjustment costs and habit formation, and a sticky-price model with an unaccommodating monetary authority. The response of hours worked to a TFP shock differs sharply across these models. I compare the accuracy of forecasts made from each of the resulting dynamic stochastic general equilibrium vector autoregression (DSGE-VAR) models. Despite having different structural characteristics, the DSGE-VARs are comparable in terms of forecasting performance. As in previous work, DSGE-VARs compare favorably with atheoretical VARs.
Year of publication: |
2009
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Authors: | Ghent, Andra C. |
Published in: |
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. - Elsevier, ISSN 0165-1889. - Vol. 33.2009, 4, p. 864-882
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Publisher: |
Elsevier |
Keywords: | Model evaluation Priors from DSGE models Economic fluctuations Hours debate Business cycles |
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