Conceptual Approach to Forecasting Demand
The article considers a conceptual approach to forecasting demand on products of a production or trading company using economic and mathematical methods. It justifies importance of modelling and forecasting consumer demand on goods. It provides a classification of methods of forecasting demand in two dimensions: from subjective to objective ones and from na?ve to cause-effect ones. It systemises groups of factors that influence demand and analyses character of their influence. It develops a concept of forecasting demand on products of a company using economic and mathematical methods, which consists of four stages: identification of factors that influence demand, selection of mathematical dependence, check of adequacy and accuracy of the model and forecast of demand. It builds forecast demand models for a specific trading company: Brown's adaptive polynomial model of the first order; and two-factor model, demand in which depends on the price of a good and its changes. It checks adequacy of each model and performs forecast of demand on products of a company.
Year of publication: |
2013
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Authors: | Andreishina Nataliia B. |
Published in: |
Business Inform. - ISSN 2222-4459. - 2013, 6, p. 120-124
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Subject: | demand | forecasting | demand function | income | price | modelling |
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