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CONDITIONAL FORECASTING FOR THE U.S. DAIRY PRICE COMPLEX WITH A BAYESIAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL

A dynamic Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model of the U.S. dairy price complex is estimated based on the Normal-Wishart distribution. The Gibbs sample technique is use with the Normal-Wishart distribution to provide conditional forecasts on the future time-paths of the model variables. The conditional forecasts for key prices are examined. Confidence intervals are calculated for the conditional forecasts.
Year of publication:
2002
Authors: Thraen, Cameron S. ; Thompson, Stanley R. ; Gohout, Wolfgang
Institutions: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association - AAEA
Subject: Demand and Price Analysis
Extent:
application/pdf
Series:
Type of publication: Book / Working Paper
Notes:
The text is part of a series 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA Number 19706
Source:
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005320302
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