Condorcet Jury Theorem in a Spatial Model of Elections

We introduce voter uncertainty to the unidimensional spatial model of elections. Strategic voters choose between the status quo and a proposed reform, and there is uncertainty about the location of the reform on the policy space. If each possible location of the reform is on the same side of the status quo, then equilibria are full information equivalent. If there is uncertainty about whether the reform lies to the left or right of the status quo, then we have multiple equilibria. While some equilibria are full information equivalent, in the others the status quo always wins. This work stresses the importance of voter co-ordination and difficulty of aggregating information when there is uncertainty about the winners and losers from a reform. Our finding provides a novel explanation for status quo bias in referenda