Consistent or Inconsistent? The Convergence Effect and its Dynamic Evolution on Energy Consumption Intensity and Production Density : Evidence from the Provincial Data In China

Energy consumption intensity and production density play important roles in economic development. This paper examines convergence clubs for per capita coal consumption and coal production in 30 Chinese provinces between 2000 and 2020. The dynamic evolutionary features are analyzed. The methods used are Phillips-Sul club convergence and kernel density estimation. The results of the analyses of the data strongly support the existence of convergence clubs, indicating that five groups of provinces are converging to distinct steady states for aggregate per capita coal consumption and six groups of provinces are converging to distinct steady states for aggregate coal production. We also find evidence that the differences in coal consumption across provinces are increasing, while the differences in coal production are decreasing. The presence of multiple equilibria and variability suggests that to ensure the security of the coal supply while preventing overcapacity, relevant policies should recognize the distinctive convergence paths associated with each cluster of provinces