Consumption, Saving, Investment, and Unemployment. SVAR Tests of the Effects of Changes in the Consumption-Saving Pattern

In this paper we aim to provide information about the transmission mechanism at work between investment and unemployment by looking at the consumption-saving pattern as a determinant of investment behaviour. Our starting hypothesis is that permanent shifts in the consumption-saving pattern will have permanent effects on investment, with subsequent consequences for the unemployment rate. To test this hypothesis we build an SVAR model for the Spanish economy seeking information about the response of the four relevant macroeconomic variables (consumption, saving, investment and unemployment) to simulated shocks imposed on the system.