COVID-19 : Erroneous Modelling and its Policy Implications

Research in Economics on COVID-19 posits an economy subject to disease dynamics, which are often seriously misspecified in terms of speed and scale. Using a social planner problem, we show that such misspecifications lead to misguided policy. Erroneously characterizing a relatively slow-moving disease engenders dramatically higher death tolls and excessive output loss relative to the correct benchmark. We delineate the latter, employing epidemiological evidence on the timescales of COVID-19 transmission and clinical progression. The resulting sound model is simple, transparent, and novel in Economics

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Year of publication:	[2021]
Authors:	Bar-On, Yinon ; Baron, Tatiana ; Milo, Ron ; Yashiv, Eran
Publisher:	[S.l.] : SSRN
Subject:	Coronavirus \| Wirkungsanalyse \| Impact assessment

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