CRÉDITO BANCÁRIO E ATIVIDADE ECONÔMICA: EVIDÊNCIAS EMPÍRICAS PARA A PRODUÇÃO INDUSTRIAL NO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO

This study contributes to the understanding of the causality between different credit measures and indicators of economic activity in the State of São Paulo. Questions have been raised as to the prevailing Granger-causality for national economies, and a regional approach that has not yet been followed in the empirical literature is pursued here. More precisely, it is dealt with the relationship between different credit modalities and diverse aspects of São Paulo´s industrial output over the period from January 1995 to December 2003, by using both a multivariate and a bivariate Autoregressive Vector model (VAR). The results show that such a dimension of the the local financial development has followed industrial development.