Crashing of stochastic processes by sampling and optimisation

The application of advanced methods of process management is essential, especially in those fields in which activity durations can be determined only vaguely, while at the same time a highly competitive market enforces strict completion schedules through the implementation of penalties. The technique presented is most suitable for determining a time‐cost trade‐off based on practice‐relevant assumptions. Completion time overruns usually cause penalties whose size depends on the degree of the overruns. To avoid such penalties – or at least to keep any losses low – distinct processes may be crashed by one or several measures that decrease the activity duration. The risk of an overrun has to be weighed against the expected costs and benefits of certain crashing measures and their combinations. The technique presented is a new PERT‐based, hybridised approach using simulated annealing and importance sampling to support typical process re‐engineering, which focuses on the efficient allocation of extra resources in order to achieve a more reliable performance without changing the precedence‐successor‐structure.