Current Account Reversals In Selected Transition Countries

The paper investigates sharp reductions seen in current account deficits in selected transition countries in the 1992-2003 period. The analysis focuses on three important aspects of these current account reversals: a) to examine those factors that might have triggered the reversals and to provide some insights into the current account adjustment process; b) to reveal some characteristics of persistent current account deficits; and c) to investigate the direct impact of these reversals on economic growth in the region. Results suggest that restrictively defined reversals seem to be closely related to factors such as domestic savings, real export growth, international reserves and external indebtedness as well as with the budget and trade balances. While the role of exchange rate depreciation seems ambiguous, we found that the sharp current account reversals are systematically associated with a gradual GDP growth slowdown in the pre-reversal period and with robust GDP growth impetus afterwards. Indeed, less restrictively defined reversals show that reversals are associated with an increase of output by around 1.20 percentage points in the second year of recovery. Finally, the results suggest the significant possibility that persistent current account deficits, which on average last more than five years, are consumption-driven in the transition countries.