Dealing with land use decisions in uncertain contexts: a method to support Strategic Environmental Assessment of spatial plans

Predicting the environmental effects of spatial plans is made harder by the uncertainties affecting the future evolution of the planning region. Decisions contained in sectoral policies play a significant role, hence they need to be properly considered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of spatial planning. A method to support SEA, based on the comparison of land use zoning options, under different sectoral policies, is developed and tested in the peri-urban region of Milan. Land use scenarios are generated and then assessed against a set of environmental indicators. The results showed the environmental consequences associated with poor co-ordination between spatial and sectoral decisions.