Decision-making in hard times : what is a recession, Why do we care and how do we know when we are in one?

by Kevin Lee and Kalvinder Shields

Defining a recessionary event as one which impacts adversely on individuals' economic well-being, the paper argues that recession is a multi-faceted phenomenon whose meaning differs from person to person as it impacts on their decision-making in real time. It argues that recession is best represented through the calculation of the nowcast of recession event probabilities. A variety of such probabilities are produced using a real-time data set for the US for the period, focusing on the likelihood of various recessionary events through 1986q1-2008q4 and on prospects beyond the end of the sample.

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Year of publication:	2009
Other Persons:	Lee, Kevin C. (contributor) ; Shields, Kalvinder K. (contributor)
Publisher:	Leicester : Univ. of Leicester, Dep. of Economics
Subject:	Entscheidung unter Unsicherheit \| Decision under uncertainty \| Zufriedenheit \| Satisfaction \| Wirtschaftslage \| Macroeconomic performance \| Konjunktur \| Business cycle \| Messung \| Measurement \| USA \| United States \| 1986-2008