Decision-making model to support agricultural policies in realizing economic and social sustainability

Background Achieving economic and social sustainability is the goal of any policy when defining measures. We focus on the beef sector, where many challenges have arisen due to its structural characteristics, such as an unfavourable scale structure, high costs, low efficiency, and a low environmental footprint. This paper presents an example of the support provided by a mathematical programming model in the development of a Common Agricultural Policy Strategic Plan for the period 2023-2027. Methods/approach It is a model based on linear programming that allows such an ex-ante analysis by calculating production plans at the farm level and aggregating the results at the sector level. Objectives When defining the interventions, the question arose as to what the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy will bring and to what extent the sector should be supported in meeting these challenges. These were the concerns of agricultural policy that we sought to support by modelling different scenarios. Results The results show that the situation of the sector will worsen, especially for larger farms, but they also show the great importance of production-related payments to mitigate the negative trend. Conclusions The applied approach proves to be suitable for supporting the design of agricultural policy and achieving greater economic and social sustainability in the sector.