Demand regimes and the business-cycle : feedback effects between capacity utilization and income distribution taking into account overhead labor : SVAR-estimates for Germany (2007 - 2021)
Mads R. Hansen
In this paper, Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models of quarterly data between 2007 and 2021 are estimated to assess short-term regimes of aggregate demand and distribution in Germany. The obtained Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) of the conventional neo-Goodwinian baseline case, with an aggregate wage-share, are compared to an alternative model, disaggregating the wage-share. The robustness of the results is tested by imposing an alternative post-Kaleckian ordering of (contemporaneous) causation. For the neo-Goodwinian baseline model, a profit-led demand schedule and a pro-cyclical wage-share are found. Disaggregation reveals, however, that the pro-cyclical wage-share is mainly driven by supervisory wages, while positive shocks in the direct wage-share had a stronger (negative) impact on aggregate demand, than the supervisory wage share. Imposing post-Kaleckian restrictions of causation yields a consistent (although weaker) estimate of the demand-regime but reversed distributive regimes: The aggregated wage-share behaves counter-cyclical, with the supervisory wage-share reacting stronger (negative) than the direct wage share, when subject to a positive shock in capacity utilization.
Year of publication: |
March 2024
|
---|---|
Authors: | Hansen, Mads R. |
Publisher: |
Berlin : Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy Berlin |
Subject: | Demand Regime | Aggregate Demand | Distribution | Capacity Utilization | Business Cycle | SVAR | Functional Income Distribution | Overhead Labor | Germany | Deutschland | Einkommensverteilung | Income distribution | Schätzung | Estimation | Konjunktur | Business cycle | Kapazitätsauslastung | Capacity utilization | Gesamtwirtschaftliche Nachfrage | Aggregate demand | Theorie | Theory | Produktionskapazität | Production capacity |
Saved in:
freely available
Saved in favorites
Similar items by subject
-
Hansen, Mads R., (2024)
-
Pandemics and aggregate demand : a framework for policy analysis
Flaschel, Peter, (2021)
-
Gallo, Ettore, (2019)
- More ...
Similar items by person
-
Hansen, Mads R., (2024)
-
Hansen, Mads R., (2023)
- More ...