Demographic factors of change in urbanisation processes : dynamics of national urban and rural population determining the degree of urbanisation

Information, theory and policy response to the process of urbanisation are growing as scientific evidences and global statistics on urban population refine. The Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) provides baseline data to determine the share of population living in urban areas using the GHSL Settlement Model Grid (GHS-SMOD). The SMOD ports the Degree of Urbanisation (Dijkstra and Poelman 2014) in the GHSL environment and applies it globally. The degree of urbanisation refers to the share of the total population living in urban areas. The information on population distribution contained in the GHSL population layer (GHS-POP) and settlement typology from GHS-SMOD are available for four epochs: 1975-1990-2000-2015. GHS-POP and GHS-SMOD applied to urbanisation analysis are mainly used to estimate the shares of urban population per country in the different epochs, and to calculate the changes in the degree of urbanisation over time. This information is particularly relevant in support to policymaking as it quantifies the patterns of urbanisation, rural-urban transitions and population shifts. The sole relative change of the degree of urbanisation per spatial unit, is not a comprehensive indication of the demographic and spatial transformations taking place in that spatial unit (e.g. a country). The classification schema is also useful to develop and apply analytical methods and tools for better understanding of current and future urbanisation trends to inform development and cooperation actions. In this technical report, we present a formalised application of the "Demographic Factors of Change in Urbanisation Processes" model to monitor variations in the degree of urbanisation at country level, analysing its demographic determinants (urban, rural and total population). The report proposes a formalised abstract classification of the cases of degree of urbanisation variations. The classification is then applied to the countries in the Region "Europe" as per the 2018 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects published by the United Nations Department for Economic and Social Affairs.