Demography, growth, and robots in advanced and emerging economies

Antonio Francesco Gravina and Matteo Lanzafame

This paper provides estimates of the impact of demographic change on labor productivity growth, relying on annual data over 1961-2018 for a panel of 90 advanced and emerging economies. We find that increases in both the young and old population shares have significant negative effects on labor productivity growth, working via various channels-including physical and human capital accumulation. Splitting the analysis for advanced and emerging economies shows that population aging has a greater effect on emerging economies than on advanced economies. Extending the benchmark model to include a proxy for the robotization of production, we find evidence indicating that automation reduces the negative effects of unfavorable demographic change-in particular, population aging-on labor productivity growth.

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Year of publication:	2023
Authors:	Gravina, Antonio Francesco ; Lanzafame, Matteo
Publisher:	Metro Manila, Philippines : Asian Development Bank
Subject:	demographic change \| labor productivity \| robots \| Roboter \| Robot \| Arbeitsproduktivität \| Labour productivity \| Schwellenländer \| Emerging economies \| Bevölkerungsentwicklung \| Demographic development \| Wirtschaftswachstum \| Economic growth \| Industrieländer \| Industrialized countries \| Alternde Bevölkerung \| Aging population