Determinants of Recidivism in Paroled Queensland Prisoners: A Comparative Analysis of Custodial and Socioeconomic Characteristics.

A multinomial ordered probit model is used to predict post-release performance in a sample of Queensland prisoners released between January 1992 and December 1994. Post-release performance is defined in terms of the seriousness of parole breaches and/or reoffences over the length of the parole period or until April 1996. The paper examines the statistical significance of a number of custodial and socioeconomic variables on the likelihood of a parole breach or re-offence. Factors analysed include family composition, age, occupation, ethnicity, the number of events in custody, the number of prison violations and the length of sentence of the most recent custodial episode. All other things being equal, the marginal effects of readmission with respect to the set of explanatory variables varies markedly according to whether readmission is through a parole breach or through actual recidivist behaviour. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd/University of Adelaide and Flinders University of South Australia