Developing a passenger mode choice model for Brisbane using the South East Queensland travel surveys

This paper presents the methodology used in developing a fully-functional mode choice module capability to be incorporated into the Brisbane Strategic Transport Model (BSTM); capable of estimating mode shares in a multi-modal travel environment. The new mode choice module consists of unique logit models developed for eight trip purpose categories namely home-based work (white collar) (HBW-W), home-based work (blue collar) (HBW-B), home-based education (primary & secondary) (HBE-PS), home-based education (tertiary) (HBE-T), home-based shopping (HBS), home-based other (HBO), work-based work (WBW) and other non-home-based trips (ONHB). The model specification developed for the mode choice module consists of two private vehicle modes of car as driver and car as passenger; three public transport modes of walk to public transport, park and ride and kiss and ride; and two non-motorised modes of walking and cycling all-the-way. The models were estimated using the revealed preference data collected in the 2003/04 South East Queensland Travel Surveys (SEQTS). A number of nested logit structures were tested along with simple multinomial logit model specifications, in order to determine the most appropriate model representing the targeted population, for each trip purpose. This paper presents the final model estimation results for each trip purpose; and discusses the statistical significance and stability of the estimated coefficients and the mode-specific constants, along with illuminating the main findings. The percentage modal split, determined from the values of the estimated parameters, is also presented and examined for each trip purpose. Finally, the paper presents a few examples of the sensitivity analysis conducted on various level-of-service attributes, in order to surmise the relative elasticity of the parameter for all the modes for a certain type of trips.