This paper investigates the patterns and determinants of change in livelihoodstrategies (“development pathways”), land management practices, agriculturalproductivity, resource and human welfare conditions in Uganda since 1990, based upon acommunity-level survey conducted in 107 villages. The pattern of agriculturaldevelopment since 1990 involved increasing specialization and commercialization ofeconomic activities, consistent with local comparative advantages and marketliberalization. This pattern was associated with changes in land use and agriculturalpractices, including expansion of cultivated area, grazing lands and woodlots at theexpense of forest and wetlands; increased ownership of cattle but declining ownership ofother livestock; and increased adoption of purchased inputs (though still low) and somesoil and water conservation practices. Despite some agricultural intensification, cropyields, food security, and a wide range of natural resource conditions (especially soilfertility) appear to have degraded throughout most of Uganda. At the same time, manyindicators of human welfare and access to goods and services have improved.Six dominant development pathways emerged, all but one of which involvedincreasing specialization in already dominant activities: expansion of cereal production,expansion of banana and coffee production, non-farm development, expansion ofhorticultural production, expansion of cotton, and stable coffee production. Of these,expansion of banana and coffee production was most strongly associated with adoption ofresource-conserving practices and improvements in resource conditions, productivity andwelfare. Other strategies are needed for less- favored areas not suited for this pathway.Road development appears to have contributed to improvements in many welfareand some natural resource conditions, except forest and wetland availability. There arethus likely trade-offs among resource and welfare outcomes when pursuing roaddevelopment where forests or wetlands are important. Elsewhere, road development canbe a “win-win” development strategy. Irrigation was found to reduce pressure to expandcultivated area at the expense of forest, wetland and fallow, and is associated withimprovement in several welfare and resource indicators; it may also be a “win-win”strategy. Government and non-governmental organization programs were also found tocontribute to improvements in several indicators of productivity, resource and welfare,though there were some mixed results. Such programs may cause declines in one area(e.g., yields of a traditional crop or energy availability) by focusing on improvements inanother area (e.g., improvement of another crop or protection of forests). Thus, trade-offsappear to be inherent in many efforts to improve agriculture or protect resources. Population growth had an insignificant impact on most indicators of change, though thereis some evidence of population- induced agricultural intensification. Population growthhad an insignificant association with changes in resource conditions, and mixedassociation with welfare indicators. In general, the findings support neither thepessimism of some neo-Malthusian observers or the optimism of some neo-Boserupianobservers regarding the impacts of population growth.
