Differences in Prices and Price Risk across Alternative Marketing Arrangements Used in the Fed Cattle Industry

Information on typical differences in prices and price risk (as measured by the variances ofprices) across marketing arrangements aids fed cattle producers in making choices aboutmethods to use for selling fed cattle to beef packers. This information is also useful for policydiscussions on merits and drawbacks of alternative marketing arrangements. As part of thecongressionally mandated Livestock and Meat Marketing Study, we investigated differences inprices and price risk for fed cattle cash market and alternative marketing arrangements. Themodeling approach, which is similar to a hedonic model, controls for differences in cattle qualityand delivery month and accounts for the within- and across-week correlation in prices. Theanalysis uses a recent data set for the October 2002 through March 2005 time period andincludes sale lots of six or more cattle purchased by the 29 largest beef packing plants in theUnited States. The results indicate that marketing agreements, which are long-term ongoingagreements between fed cattle producers and packers that use formula pricing, offered the besttrade-off between price level and price risk for both beef and dairy breed fed cattle. Prices werewithin $0.01 per pound carcass weight for both beef and dairy breed fed cattle sold undermarketing agreements instead of through direct trade, but they were 18% to 20% less volatile.While auction barn prices were higher than all other methods, they were also the most volatile.Forward contracts had the lowest average price and the most volatile prices. The results alsoindicate that larger and higher quality lots were associated with higher average prices andlower variance of prices.