Discretized time and conditional duration modelling for stock transaction data

This article considers conditional duration models in which durations are in continuous time, but measured in grouped or discretized form. This feature of recorded durations in combination with a frequently traded stock is expected to negatively influence the performance of conventional estimators for intra-day duration models. A few estimators that account for the discreteness are discussed and compared in a Monte Carlo experiment. An EM-algorithm accounting for the discrete data performs better than those that do not. Empirical results are reported for trading durations in Ericsson B at Stockholmsborsen for a 3-week period of July 2002. The incorporation of level variables for past trading is rejected in favour of change variables. This enables an interpretation in terms of news effects. No evidence of asymmetric responses to news about prices and spreads is found.