Distributional Employment Effects of Ontario Minimum-Wage Proposals: A Microdata Approach

This paper examines the distribution of potential employment losses from the proposed increase in the Ontario minimum wage to 60 percent of the average Ontario wage. The analysis is based on microdata for 1989. It is found that the majority of workers affected are women, but the average cost gap of those affected is greater for men. Those most affected are young and part-time workers, with high-school education or less, and in the Retail, Accommodation and Food industries. Those affected come disproportionately from families with low earnings. The policy is estimated to reduce the number of jobs by 73-92 thousand or 1.2 to 1.5 percent.