Do Community-Based, Long-Term-Care Services Reduce Nursing Home Use? A Transition Probability Analysis

This study offers logit estimates of the probability of transition from the community to a nursing home based upon data from the National Long-Term-Care Demonstration. It is found that nurses deter entry by those using a wheelchair while home-health aides deter entry for those with cognitive impairments. Personal-care aides and housekeepers reduce admission risk for those with severe functional disabilities. These findings suggest that appropriate targeting of community-based services would improve the degree to which they offset nursing home expenditures.