Do Electric Vehicles Reduce Carbon Emissions? Verification and Evaluation Based on Energy Structure

Confronting the escalating challenges appertaining to global climate change, countries around the world have been rigorously developing strategies to achieve carbon neutrality. The electrification of transportation systems is a feasible way owing to its profound potential to address issues tied to carbon emissions and environmental contamination. This paper verifies the effect of electric vehicles (EV) sales on carbon emissions through panel data models constructed upon the Environmental Kuznets Curve and moderating effect models considering energy structure. Additionally, the carbon reduction effect (CRE) of EV is proposed as a new statistical indicator to evaluate the impact of EV stock share on each country’s carbon emissions. Using data from 19 OECD countries during the period of 2010 to 2021, we find that: (1) An inverse relationship exists between EV sales and carbon emissions per capita, with a 1% increase in EV sales per thousand people leading to an approximate 1.2% decrease in carbon emissions per capita. (2) A country’s energy structure positively moderates the relationship between EV sales and carbon emissions, with a more sustainable energy structure amplifying the CRE potential. (3) Despite the rising CRE among studied countries, market penetration remains low, indicating a significant opportunity for further carbon reduction