Do You Know That I Know That You Know...? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Saten Kumar, Jane Ryngaert

We implement a new survey of firms, focusing on their higher-order macroeconomic expectations. The survey provides a novel set of stylized facts regarding the relationship between first-order and higher-order expectations of economic agents, including how they adjust their beliefs in response to a variety of information treatments and how these adjustments affect their economic decisions. We show how these facts can be used to calibrate key parameters of noisy-information models with infinite regress as well as to test predictions made by this class of models. The survey also quantifies cognitive limits of agents in the form of level-k thinking. We find little evidence that this departure from infinite regress helps reconcile the data and theory

MoreLess

Year of publication:	September 2018
Authors:	Coibion, Olivier
Other Persons:	Gorodnichenko, Yuriy (contributor) ; Kumar, Saten (contributor) ; Ryngaert, Jane (contributor)
Institutions:	National Bureau of Economic Research (contributor)
Publisher:	2018: Cambridge, Mass : National Bureau of Economic Research
Subject:	Erwartungsbildung \| Expectation formation \| Informationsverhalten \| Information behaviour \| Neuseeland \| New Zealand \| Feldforschung \| Field research \| Anpassung \| Adjustment \| Unternehmenspolitik \| Corporate policy

freely available

Full text |

More access options

doi.org

Check Google Scholar

In German libraries (KVK)

I need help

Which error do you want to report?

Report: URL of this record is broken

Please note: Sometimes more than one URL is available for a resource. Please click on "More Options" to display these URLs

Report: Addition of an URL to that resource

Please note: Sometimes more than one URL is available for a resource. Please click on "More Options" to display these URLs

Report: The language(s) of that resource is/are…

Please note: Required language not in the list? Please use comment field

Report: Addition of an identifier to that resource

Report: report typo

Report: Add statement

Report: Add keywords

Please use the commentary box to describe other errors

Would you like to receive a feedback?

Commentary

Please type the code from the image

For general questions please use this address.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480640