Does VPIN provide predictive information for realized volatility forecasting : evidence from Chinese stock index futures market

Purpose: Using intraday data, the authors explore the forecast ability of one high frequency order flow imbalance measure (OI) based on the volume-synchronized probability of informed trading metric (VPIN) for predicting the realized volatility of the index futures on the China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300). Design/methodology/approach: The authors employ the heterogeneous autoregressive model for realized volatility (HAR-RV) and compare the forecast ability of models with and without the predictive variable, OI. Findings: The empirical results demonstrate that the augmented HAR model incorporating OI (HARX-RV) can generate more precise forecasts, which implies that the order imbalance measure contains substantial information for describing the volatility dynamics. Originality/value: The study sheds light on the relation between high frequency trading behavior and volatility forecasting in China's index futures market and reveals the underlying market mechanisms of liquidity-induced volatility.