Drilling Deeper: A Systematic, Context-Sensitive Investigation of Causal Mechanisms in the Oil-Conflict Link

This article employs an innovative methodology to study causal mechanisms in the oil-conflict link by combining a systematic approach with taking into account country details. Engaging in a deductive test of causal mechanisms in a controlled comparison of four major oil exporters, results show that no oil-related causal mechanism can fully explain the differences in violence. A more inductive analysis complemented by process tracing suggests a more comprehensive mechanism: oil contributes to the formation of opposition through grievances. Levels of violence, however, vary largely according to non-oil conditions - particularly the cohesiveness of opposition and the reaction of government to challengers.