Drivers of the European bioeconomy in transition (BioEconomy2030) : an exploratory, model-based assessment

The bioeconomy comprises sectors that use renewable biological resources to produce food, materials and energy. It is at the centre of several global and EU challenges in the near future such as the creation of growth and jobs, climate change, food security and resource depletion. "Bioeconomy 2030" projects a reference scenario ('business as usual') and compares it with two distinct policy narratives ('Outward-looking' and 'Inward-looking') to understand the drivers of EU's bioeconomy up to 2030, assess its resilience to fulfil such diverse policy goals and identify potential trade-offs. As a motor of jobs and growth, the results indicate that the importance of the bio-based sectors is expected to dwindle somewhat. The factors underlying this result are mainly structural and related to comparably lower macroeconomic growth rates in the EU. It is, however, conceivable that improved economic development or productivity improvements linked to EU investments in, for instance bio-based innovation, would produce a recognisably more optimistic outlook for the EU bioeconomy.