Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock Market: An Application of a Vector Error Correction Model

By employing the vector error correction model (VECM) in a system of seven equations, we find that the Japanese stock market is cointegrated with a group of six macroeconomic variables. The signs of the long-term elasticity coefficients of the macroeconomic variables on stock prices generally support the hypothesized equilibrium relations. Our findings are robust to different combinations of macroeconomic variables in six-dimension systems and two subperiods. Also, the VECM consistently outperforms the vector autoregressive model in forecasting ability.