Dynamic Supply Response and Welfare Effects of Technological Change on Perennial Crops: The Case of Cocoa in Malaysia.

Modern biotechnology will generate crops with higher yields and enhanced resistance to pests and diseases. In the case of perennial crops, the age composition of the present stand, the farmers' willingness to invest, and the yield profiles of old and new trees determine the speed of adoption of the new technology and the timing of the effects on supply and demand conditions. We adapt conventional welfare measures to account for these factors in the assessment of research induced supply shifts. The application to cocoa in Malaysia shows that consumers and adopting producers gain and nonadopters lose. Overall, 72% of the welfare gains go to the consumers. Copyright 2001 by American Agricultural Economics Association