Dynamics of Technological Change and Schemes of Diffusion.

This paper attempts to analyze a technical change at the industry level by rendering explicit the investment behavior of the firms. The authors develop a model based on the assumption that production technology can be either modern or traditional. The probability that a firm modernizes is assumed to be a function of market conditions and of performances of equipments. This behavior, combined with the general movement of investments driven by market prospects, sets the pace and shape of diffusion. Using a simple indicator of modernization, the model is estimated for five OECD countries between 1974 and 1982. Copyright 1989 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester